Gujarat Election 2017: भविष्यवाणी करने वाले विश्लेषक का आकलन- बीजेपी की…..

बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश विधानसभा चुनावों की सटीक भविष्यवाणी करने वाले सुरजीत एस. भल्ला ने गुजरात चुनाव के बारे में दिलचस्प पूर्वानुमान लगाया है। उनका कहना है कि गुजरात में सत्तारूढ़ भाजपा को सौ से कम सीटें आने के जीरो चांस हैं। लेकिन, 130 से ज्यादा सीटें भी नहीं आएंगी। ऐसे में भाजपा के राष्ट्रीय अध्यक्ष अमित शाह की 150 सीटें आने की भविष्यवाणी सही नहीं होने जा रही है। इसको लेकर उन्होंने अपने विश्लेषण के आधार पर आंकड़े भी दिए हैं।

‘द इंडियन एक्सप्रेस’ में प्रकाशित अपने साप्ताहिक कॉलम में उन्होंने गुजरात विधानसभा में भाजपा के जीतने की बात कही है। भल्ला के अनुसार, मीडिया ने चार अलग-अलग मॉडल के आधार पर भाजपा को 120-130 सीटें मिलने का अनुमान लगाया है। इसका मतलब यह हुआ कि गुजरात में सत्तारूढ़ दल आसानी से लक्ष्य को हासिल कर लेगी। गुजरात विधानसभा में 182 सीटें हैं। ऐसे में अगर भाजपा सौ से कम सीटें लाकर चुनाव जीतती है तो इसका अर्थ उसकी हार से ही लगाया जाएगा। यदि ऐसा होता है तो चुनाव के बाद मीडिया, राजनीतिज्ञों और अर्थशास्त्रियों के बीच विश्लेषण का मुद्दा आर्थिक (विकास) रहेगा। इस माहौल में ब्याज दरों को लेकर आरबीआई भी निशाने पर रहेगा। अब तक के इंडीकेटर्स से पता चलता है कि गुजरात में भाजपा की हार बहुत बड़ा उलट-फेर होगी। साथ ही सत्तारूढ़ दल को 105 से कम सीटें मिलना भी चौंकाने वाला होगा।

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